2008 and $100 Barrels of Oil ~ What lies ahead?
By David A. Podgursky • Jan 4th, 2008 • Category: Market Commentary, South Florida InfoThis time of year, everyone wants to be a prognosticator of what lies ahead for the coming year in the world, the US, the economy and the Real Estate and Mortgage Industries. It is funny how many differing 
reports we get from so many different sources.
The hardest thing to swallow, though, are the reports from people who really have no clue what they are talking about - Jim Cramer - or who report on an entire Industry and panic the local markets!
Local markets are what I like to focus my efforts on… why? because you can really see how effective or how ineffective the national news really are!
Case in Point… in 2004, I was exposed to my first Hurricane as a new resident of the State of Florida. I moved here in 2003 but there were no real storms to speak of. For the first storm, I loaded up our SUV with the dogs and some clothes and headed back to Louisville, Kentucky - my hometown - and waited it out with my parents.
WOW… disaster and devastation throughout the entire state as reported by the National News.
And MAN were they WRONG.
After things blew over, we headed back down - just in time for Hurricane #2 that year. It was tense and a little nerve wracking but there were no houses flying through the sky or mean neighbors on bikes trying to get my little dog. I wasn’t in Kentucky anymore so I saw the reality of what was going on…The Real World - South Florida.
What that proved was that each individual area is impacted differently by every different force imaginable. Some mobile home parks had no damages but million dollar plus communities had every tree and roof damaged. Two counties had power while the county in between them suffered for 2 weeks without it.
This leads me back to Real Estate. It is important whether you are a Realtor, Buyer, Seller, Mortgage Broker, Banker, Investor, or Journalist to realize that there is “The Market” and there are sub-markets within each Region, State, County, City, Municipality, School District, Community, Developments, Neighborhood and even within neighborhoods themselves that will have their own individual ups and downs.
This means that while “The Market” may remain bleak or “bloody” as some luxury condo developers are saying to me… the sub-markets may be rosy!
Luxury Condos ARE going to suffer in Florida… but in Aspen, on the Ski Slopes there are people throwing money around like there is no market issue.
Affordable Housing is a necessity - so it has to sell… people have to buy and with the rental market hurting, waiting until the market recovers could be dangerous for affordable home buyers!
Many markets’ declines have seen the “affordable” housing areas, communities and developments lose the quotation marks as now they are actually priced well within Affordable Housing standards!
So my advice to all lookers is to really observe each market and sub-market individually. Know the ins and outs…
- Maybe the community where you want to buy/invest has hit bottom already.
- Maybe you don’t have a lot of time to keep watching because prices may start ticking up.
- Perhaps rates are so favorable right now that you should not pass up a great opportunity
- Perhaps a new development is popping up and it would be a great time for you to buy affordable pre-construction
Remember… the market is fickle…but the submarkets are even moreso. What one person thinks about their surroundings may not fit all surroundings. Working with Real Estate and Mortgage professionals that can help you sift through all the negativity and see the real picture is the only way to proceed in this market.
You wouldn’t try to navigate the jungles of Southeast Asia without a guide… so why would you try to do so in the Housing Market?
You also wouldn’t allow your parents to be your jungle guide… trust the Pros…and make 2008 a great year.
More Florida Mortgage and Real Estate News You Can Use From
David A. Podgursky, MBA
TheMortgageGoToGuy.com
Your Source for Residential, Commercial, Investment and Relocation Mortgages in Florida
David A. Podgursky is a Broker Associate for Boca Executive Realty - www.bocaexecutiverealty.com. As a resident of Lake Worth Florida, David succeeds in assisting Buyers and Sellers with their Residential and Commercial Real Estate needs in Boynton Beach, Lake Worth, Greenacres, Delray Beach and Boca Raton Florida.
David is a Florida Licensed Real Estate Broker and Mortgage Broker making him uniquely capable of offering Full Service Real Estate Services to his clients.
From assisting a first time buyer in determining how much they can afford to analyzing an investment for a high end investor to helping a baby boomer decide the best property for their retirement in Sunny Florida, David Podgursky is the Boynton Beach/Lake Worth Realtor to call first!
(561) 504-6949 cell * davidp@bocaexecutive.com
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I hope I’m not the only one that responds to your blog. But once again I happen to agree.
The majority always misses the best opportunity. They miss the top and of course they will miss the bottom. I will even go a step further than you, and say that there is, beyond local markets, beyond sub-markets, a personal market element which must be considered. If you find the house you want and can afford, and the mortgage rates are so low that you can actually get a fixed 30 year, or whatever product is best suited, and can make the payments without batting an eye; well, for you, the market may have just hit the sweet spot. You may loose if you wait.
The price bottom may coincide with mortgage rates that are no longer favorable, and in a while it probably will.
Look at it from your own prospective and act when the time is best for you not for CNBC or The New York Times. Look hard, but that time may be here or may come sooner rather than later.
Herd mentality always leads to disaster. It did on the way up and it will again on the way down. Knowing your own position and acting in your own best interest will reward you in the long run, not following the media.